$ROBCREATOR DUMP47%
creator sold 47% of supply for 539 ETH
$SWAPLIQUIDITY PULL100%
creator pulled the pool, 32.7 ETH above its deposit
$SISELF-SNIPE53%
one operation wallet took 3.81 ETH in a minute
$DEEDWASH + DUMP99%
385 ETH of wash volume, then the creator sold
fable
Fable Intelligence
Report 02 · data as of Oct 5 12:23 UTC
Follow-up to Report 01 · Robinhood Chain and Solana

Seven ways launches get rugged

Every proven rug type on Robinhood Chain, one launching operation traced in full, the serial actors ranked by ETH taken, and Solana refreshed. Each number links to a transaction or a table.
5,867
coins with a proven rug type19.5% of the 30,014 coins launched in 14 days with 10+ buyers
5,296
were not red at launchthe launch detector showed green or amber; the new detectors read what happened after
12,970
Solana rug operations208,792 SOL taken in a 77-hour window
Counts cover coins launched Sep 21 to Oct 5 with 10 or more buyers. They move every hour as the detectors refresh; this edition is frozen at the time above and the files in the data folder list every coin.
@FableDotMarketData as of Oct 5 12:23 UTC · every claim links to its evidence
Key findings

What the new detectors found

Seven numbers. Each one is backed by transactions in the sections that follow and by the files in the data folder.

01
5,86719.5% of 30,014 coins
coins carry a proven rug type: a transaction you can open shows the creator selling, the pool being emptied, an operation sniping its own launch, or a tied group exiting. 5,296 of them were not red in the launch detector, so they are new facts. 214 carry two or more types, and 427 more were launched by a serial actor with proven exits on other coins.Read more
02
4,83031,198 ETH above the deposits
liquidity pulls on Uniswap v2 and v3: the creator side removed 50% or more of the pool. The ETH removed above what the creator had put in is 31,198 ETH, the median pull came 11 minutes after launch, and 4,717 of the 4,830 are not red at launch.Read more
03
78210,823 ETH sold
creator dumps: the creator side sold a median 37% of supply, first sale a median 88 seconds after launch, net profit 9,990 ETH. 624 are coins launched through Pons, 156 through Uniswap v3.Read more
04
17993.7 ETH profit
launches were sniped by the operation that launched them: its wallets bought a median 28% of supply inside a minute and sold nearly all of it. 44 fee-money operations show a proven exit on 2 or more other coins, and 19 creator wallets dumped or pulled 3 or more coins.Read more
05
62launches, one fee collector
launches by 46 creator wallets feed the operation behind $ASTRAL. It took 4.87 ETH from that one coin, in creator fees and a first-minute snipe, and its snipe profit across 6 coins is 3.34 ETH. The 98% collapse that followed was a crowd sell-off, not its exit.Read more
06
12,970208,792 SOL taken
Solana launches were rug operations in 77 hours ($25.1M), up from 5,350 in Report 01's 28.8-hour window. The median first sell comes 3 seconds after launch.Read more
07
10 of 10numbers re-read on public RPCs
numbers from this report were recomputed from the chain with no use of our database: a launch time and sender, a 4.368 ETH payout, a fee claim, a 18.96% first-minute buy, 24 sellers in one block, a creator dump's 46.67% of supply and 539 ETH, a 32.7 ETH pool removal, a wash round trip, and a Solana sell.Read more
Since Report 01

What is new since Report 01

Report 01 was built from data as of 2026-10-03 07:29 UTC. Its figures stay as of that time. This edition adds results that did not exist then.

MeasureOct 3 7:29
Report 01 data
Oct 5 12:03
daily run
Oct 5 12:13
daily run
Launches indexed664,689673,621673,649
Deployer addresses386,627392,413392,428
Launches called rugged3,7083,9793,979
ETH taken in those rugs (net)18,26818,83918,839
Proven bundled launches115,919135,312135,457
ETH taken by bundles (net)44,30544,86744,851
X posts indexed49,67071,46971,469
Proven wash share of volume, %1.31.31.3
Sniper wallets1,7711,7711,771

Between the first and last column 52.7 hours passed and 8,960 launches were indexed. A launch counts as rugged or bundled only when its prices and sells have been read, so a young launch can move between columns; the daily run records the re-judged count separately.

New in this edition

The seven rug detectors passed their on-chain bar. Each was recomputed from receipts and logs on the public RPCs for 20 random hits: 20 of 20 for every type, after fixing the first-pass misses listed under Method. They run hourly and write one fact with a proof transaction per hit.
A launch the bundle detector read as clean is now explained. $ASTRAL was green at launch. Its operation is traced in the case study below, from fee wallet to collector to cash-out.
Solana has a longer window. 189,058 launches seen, up from 68,395 at Report 01.
Bad-play detectors, version 4. 17 detections went live on the Fable cards after an independent re-check of random hits, and 2 more for Solana. They are listed in the Bad play section with their counts, their check results and proof links.
A daily refresh writes the headline numbers to one table. 7 runs so far; each run is a row set in the table the trend below reads. The ledger behind Report 01 is not overwritten, so every Report 01 number stays reproducible.
Rug types

Seven ways a launch gets rugged

Detectors ran over the 30,014 coins launched Sep 21 to Oct 5 with 10 or more buyers. A coin gets a type only when its rule holds and a transaction proves it. Every hit is in the files rug_hits.csv with its proof link.

TypeCoinsETHMedian timeNot redOn-chain checkProof
Creator dumps78210,823 ETH
net profit 9,990 ETH
88 seconds438
56.0%
20 of 20$ROB $VRAX $FOOMS
Liquidity pulls4,83031,198 ETH11 minutes4,717
97.7%
20 of 20$SWAP $ZERO $AICABAL
Operation self-snipes17993.7 ETHunder a second44
24.6%
20 of 20$SI $DOT $MSAI
Serial actors74844 operations
19 creator wallets
n/a284
38.0%
20 of 20
on each of the three rules
see tables
Coordinated exits179782 ETH22 minutes120
67.0%
20 of 20
on a second sample
$HOOD6900 $SI $PKRT
Insider clusters84339 ETH29 minutes64
76.2%
20 of 20
on a second sample
$HOOD6900 $SI $PKRT
Wash then dump34628 ETH50 seconds4
11.8%
20 of 20$DEED $APES $APES

The rules

Creator dumps. The creator, its fee wallet or wallets it paid sold 20% to 100% of supply and took 0.5 ETH or more in profit, or sold 50% or more for 1 ETH or more. Only tokens that left into the pool count, net of rebuys. ETH figure: ETH received for the coins sold.
Liquidity pulls. On Uniswap v2 and v3, a creator-side wallet removed 50% or more of the pool outside swaps while outside buyers had put in 1 ETH or more. Uniswap v4 and Pons pools are excluded: their removals cannot be told from swaps. ETH figure: WETH removed above what the creator had put in.
Operation self-snipes. Wallets of one launching operation bought 10% or more of supply within 60 seconds of launch and sold 90% or more of it for 0.25 ETH or more in profit. An operation is a set of fee wallets that pay the same collector wallets within 72 hours of claiming fees (5 or more fee wallets, 3 or more creator wallets). ETH figure: net profit of the operation's wallets.
Serial actors. The same actor has a proven exit on several coins: a fee-money operation with 2 or more other coins that carry a proven exit, one creator wallet with a dump or pull on 3 or more coins, or one tied group with a proven exit on 3 or more coins.
Coordinated exits. 3 or more wallets tied to one anchor wallet sold 10% or more of supply inside 10 minutes after the price had risen 1.5 times or more since the launch minute, and the price then fell by half or more. ETH figure: ETH the tied group received in the exit window.
Insider clusters. 3 or more wallets tied to one anchor wallet bought 10% or more of supply after the launch minute and sold 10% or more inside 10 minutes. The price then fell by half or more and outside buyers were net 0.5 ETH or more in. ETH figure: ETH the tied group received in the exit window.
Wash then dump. A one-transaction round-trip wash worth 2 ETH or more and 20% or more of all volume came before a proven exit. ETH figure: ETH of wash volume before the exit.

A tie is an on-chain fact: the anchor wallet funded the wallets, received their ETH, airdropped to them, or passed the coin to or from them. Busy bot wallets and hubs never anchor a group. ETH figures count only ETH or WETH quotes and drop any single figure of 10,000 ETH or more as a price artefact. Every figure is a floor: exits through wallets the creator funded but did not sign from are not counted.

Creator dumps by launch venue: 624 coins launched through Pons, 156 through Uniswap v3, 2 through Uniswap v2 and v4. Liquidity pulls are counted on Uniswap v2 (3,587) and v3 (1,243) only. Pons is infrastructure and is never the subject: the coins are, and the wallets that launched them.

Per launch day

Coins with a proven rug type, by the launch detector colour

red at launchamber at launchgreen or unread at launch
01503004506002123252729135

By day of launch. The first and last day are partial. Green or unread coins are the ones the new detectors add.

Share of each launch day's coins with a proven rug type

013274015%2119%2222%2322%2423%2525%2624%2724%2818%2917%3018%120%230%326%422%5

Proof for the largest of each type

Creator dumps

  • $ROB creator sold 47% of supply for 539 ETH, first sale 71 seconds after launch, selling over 1.8 hours. proof tx
  • $VRAX creator sold 34% of supply for 499 ETH, first sale 3 minutes after launch. proof tx
  • $FOOMS creator sold 50% of supply for 348 ETH, first sale 71 seconds after launch, selling over 1.6 hours. proof tx

Liquidity pulls

  • $SWAP creator removed 100% of the pool, 32.7 ETH above its deposit, 22 minutes after launch. proof tx
  • $ZERO creator removed 100% of the pool, 32.7 ETH above its deposit, 68 minutes after launch. proof tx
  • $AICABAL creator removed 100% of the pool, 32.0 ETH above its deposit, 36 minutes after launch. proof tx

Operation self-snipes

  • $SI 1 wallet of one operation bought 53% of supply in the first minute, profit 3.81 ETH. proof tx
  • $DOT 1 wallet of one operation bought 19% of supply in the first minute, profit 2.40 ETH. proof tx
  • $MSAI 1 wallet of one operation bought 19% of supply in the first minute, profit 2.29 ETH. proof tx

Coordinated exits

  • $HOOD6900 108 tied wallets sold 12% of supply for 64.5 ETH. proof tx
  • $SI 162 tied wallets sold 20% of supply for 42.8 ETH. proof tx
  • $PKRT 13 tied wallets sold 15% of supply for 36.8 ETH. proof tx

Insider clusters

  • $PGREM 18 tied wallets sold 26% of supply for 26.6 ETH. proof tx
  • $GIGACAT 11 tied wallets sold 21% of supply for 16.4 ETH. proof tx
  • $row 5 tied wallets sold 14% of supply for 16.1 ETH. proof tx

Wash then dump

  • $DEED 385 ETH of wash volume, 99% of volume, then a proven exit. proof tx
  • $APES (0x68d7..e23b) 50.6 ETH of wash volume, 78% of volume, then a proven exit. proof tx
  • $APES (0xf3b2..787e) 48.5 ETH of wash volume, 76% of volume, then a proven exit. proof tx
Case study

$ASTRAL: one operation, one fee collector

A coin the launch detector read as green, explained from the first funding transaction to the cash-out.

Case study
$ASTRAL
operation self-snipeserial actorlaunch detector: green

$ASTRAL launched on Pons on 2026-10-03 20:13:58 UTC from a throwaway creator wallet. The launch detector read it as clean because the buying wallets share no funder except trading-bot relayers. The wallets that bought it in the first second belong to one operation: 62 launches by 46 creator wallets, 38 fee wallets and 22 collector wallets, linked by creator-fee money. The operation took 4.87 ETH from this coin, and its snipe wallets were out within 12 minutes. The 98% price collapse came later and was a crowd sell-off.

62
launches by the operation
46
creator wallets
4.87 ETH
taken from $ASTRAL
18.96%
bought in the first minute
+1 s
first buy after launch

How the operation is tied together, step by step

  1. The creator is a throwaway. Fee wallet 0x50c458…1506 funded the creator 0x5102d4…b955 with 0.00105 ETH in the launch second (funding tx) and the creator launched in the next block (launch tx). It never held a token.
  2. The fee wallet was seeded by a trading-bot relayer with 0.0297 ETH (seed tx). That relayer has paid more than 43,000 recipients, so it is a hub and links nothing by itself.
  3. Creator fees. The fee wallet made 3 claims totalling 4.34 ETH (4.1481 ETH, 0.0687 ETH, 0.1229 ETH). At 2026-10-04 06:14:09 UTC it sent 4.368 ETH to collector 0x3a163e…ba62 (payout tx).
  4. The collector serves 12 fee wallets that forwarded 13.61 ETH of the 13.89 ETH they claimed within 72 hours of each claim (largest forward tx). Across the whole operation, 45 fee wallets made 73 claims worth 36.81 ETH in 28 days (largest 8.233 ETH).
  5. Cash-out. The collector sent 7.6 ETH (26 Sep) and 5 ETH (2 Oct) to contract 0x114d57…cd9e, a high-volume deposit contract with 11,924 ETH senders that we have not identified.
  6. The operator's trading wallet 0x75b01e…2668 was paid by 5 fee wallets of the operation (0.175 ETH, 0.091 ETH, 0.172 ETH, 0.158 ETH, 0.141 ETH) and swapped USDG with the collector both ways (24,402.69 USDG, 20,000 USDG).
  7. The launch snipe. 10 wallets, the trading wallet and 9 bot wallets, bought 18.96% of supply in the first minute through one bot contract, in blocks 8 and 9 after launch (largest buy). They sold their positions in one second at +48 s, bought again with 0.0198 ETH each and sold again. Together with one operator-paid wallet they bought 27.5%, sold 27.5% by 12 minutes and made 0.532 ETH on 1.25 ETH of sales (largest sell tx).
  8. One controller. The 9 bot wallets were created in two one-second batches, and all 10 wallets sent their last transaction in the same second (tx A, tx B). The same 10 wallets bought 9 of 9 operation launches between Oct 1 and Oct 3 within 0 to 4 seconds.

The operation sniped its own launches on 6 coins

CoinLaunchedWalletsFirst-minute buyProfitProof
$SesbotSep 22112.3%0.948 ETHproof tx
$gethSep 23412.8%0.418 ETHproof tx
$AZSep 23510.6%0.909 ETHproof tx
$CODOSSep 26417.5%0.268 ETHproof tx
$GLMSSep 29611.0%0.265 ETHproof tx
$ASTRALOct 31019.0%0.532 ETHproof tx
Total3.34 ETH

Timeline, UTC

20:13:58
Launch. Creator funded one block earlier. The operation's 10 wallets buy 18.96% at +1 s.
20:14:46
All 10 sell in one second, +0.39 ETH. Second round at 20:18:35 and 20:24:06.
20:42
Graduation. Peak 72.3 gwei at 21:34, 43 times the launch price.
22:25 to 22:31
Collapse: 24 wallets sell in one block (79,438,721) through a trading router, 120 wallets sell 43.6% of supply for 5.2 ETH, most at a loss. None is linked to the operation, which was out at +12 minutes.
23:36 to 06:13
Fee wallet claims 4.34 ETH. At 06:14:09 it pays 4.368 ETH to the collector.
Allegation by third parties, not a finding. Posts on X tied the coin to the real founder of a project with the same name. The deployer has no on-chain link to that project.
Not on this chain, not proven. Who paid for the paid DEX listing, the influencer post and the CoinMarketCap vote spam that surrounded the peak, and who controls the cash-out contract.
Checked and not found. A creator sell, a liquidity pull (the Uniswap v4 pool manager still holds 67.1%, with 30 third-party liquidity providers and none on the creator side), and wash trading between wallets. 0 of the 325 largest traders share a funding ancestor with the creator side, over 4 hops.
A near-identical collapse that is not called a rug. $HOODAGENTS fell 94% after a similar run. Its creator never sold and nothing was pulled. The largest take, 9.20 ETH, went to one trader with 12 wallets that has no link to the creator. The two coins share no funder, no transfer and no sweep.

The 62 launches of the operation are listed in astral_operation_launches.csv. The case file by agent rugdeep, with every transaction re-read on the public RPC, is in cases/astral. Operation sizes differ by definition: the fee-money graph reaches 62 launches in 28 days, while the case file counts the 35 Pons launches whose fee wallets forward to the one collector 0x3a16 (40.08 ETH claimed in total).

Serial actors

The serial actors, ranked by ETH taken

19 creator wallets have a proven dump or pull on 3 or more coins (144 coins). 44 fee-money operations launched coins with a proven exit on 2 or more other coins (582 coins). The tables rank the largest by ETH, each row with its proof.

Creator wallets with a proven dump or pull on 3 or more coins

ActorCoinsETH takenActiveProof
0x49de94…18d9
creator wallet, Uniswap v3, 2 of its coins reuse an earlier ticker
3102Oct 3 to Oct 3largest: 55.1 ETH
$CLAUDIA, creator dump
0x517d9e…71a8
creator wallet, Pons, 5 of its coins reuse an earlier ticker
2533.3Sep 22 to Sep 25largest: 2.65 ETH
$SGI, creator dump
0x25cab0…6dd6
creator wallet, Pons
1630.0Sep 22 to Sep 24largest: 2.69 ETH
$STONKYARD, creator dump
0xb62af8…a6bb
creator wallet, Pons, 2 of its coins reuse an earlier ticker
1423.6Sep 21 to Sep 22largest: 2.15 ETH
$AGE, creator dump
0xc4ff18…cd7c
creator wallet, Uniswap v3
321.6Sep 24 to Sep 24largest: 7.50 ETH
$Nautilo, liquidity pull
0x01f72d…f200
creator wallet, Pons, 4 of its coins reuse an earlier ticker
2118.2Oct 1 to Oct 3largest: 1.34 ETH
a coin, creator dump
0x707da7…8ef4
creator wallet, Uniswap v3
37.10Sep 28 to Sep 28largest: 6.16 ETH
$boar, creator dump
0xb3f612…6f55
creator wallet, Pons
35.32Sep 23 to Sep 23largest: 2.08 ETH
$ETHP, creator dump

Also re-read on the public RPC: the proof transactions of the 3 largest creator wallets: 3 of 3 succeeded and were signed by the wallet. A coin reuses an earlier ticker when its symbol equals that of an earlier coin with 2,000 or more buyers.

ETH taken is the sum, per coin, of the larger of the creator's net sale profit and the ETH removed from the pool above the creator's own deposit. A floor: a coin counts once and exits through wallets the creator funded but did not sign from are not counted. Window: coins launched in the last 14 days.

Fee-money operations

Threat actor (fee-money operation)Exit coinsExits, ETHFees, ETHTotal, ETHProof
Operation of 62 launches
0x3a163e…ba62
46 creator wallets, 38 fee wallets, 22 collectors
63.3436.840.1largest exit 0.95 ETH
largest claim 8.23 ETH
Operation of 78 launches
0x275940…da9f
76 creator wallets, 76 fee wallets, 81 collectors
2920.013.633.6largest exit 1.25 ETH
largest claim 0.42 ETH
Operation of 7 launches
0xd00e03…c005
7 creator wallets, 7 fee wallets, 8 collectors
34.7222.126.8largest exit 3.82 ETH
largest claim 9.84 ETH
Operation of 6 launches
0x0f2528…daf7
6 creator wallets, 6 fee wallets, 10 collectors
611.914.426.3largest exit 8.49 ETH
largest claim 4.53 ETH
Operation of 30 launches
0xc8fb11…50f3
30 creator wallets, 30 fee wallets, 26 collectors
1111.10.9712.1largest exit 2.29 ETH
largest claim 0.07 ETH
Operation of 67 launches
0x51a9b4…ed87
67 creator wallets, 67 fee wallets, 182 collectors
54.876.6911.6largest exit 1.45 ETH
largest claim 0.42 ETH
Operation of 82 launches
0xe6578d…e14a
76 creator wallets, 76 fee wallets, 5 collectors
144.473.938.40largest exit 0.47 ETH
largest claim 0.28 ETH
Operation of 10 launches
0x11e6f1…a81b
8 creator wallets, 8 fee wallets, 1 collectors
31.512.133.63largest exit 0.90 ETH
largest claim 0.47 ETH

An operation is a set of fee wallets that forward their claimed creator fees to the same collector wallets within 72 hours. Exits are the per-coin largest proven take of the operation's coins (creator dump profit, pool removal above deposit, or self-snipe profit). Creator fees are the claims of its fee wallets in the last 28 days and are shown apart because Pons pays them to creators by design; the combined column ranks the table. The operation of $ASTRAL leads.

Top serial actors by ETH

creator wallet, dumps and pullsfee-money operation, exits and fees
0x49de..18d9102 ETH3 coinsoperation 62 launches40.1 ETHexits + feesoperation 78 launches33.6 ETHexits + fees0x517d..71a833.3 ETH25 coins0x25ca..6dd630.0 ETH16 coinsoperation 7 launches26.8 ETHexits + feesoperation 6 launches26.3 ETHexits + fees0xb62a..a6bb23.6 ETH14 coins0xc4ff..cd7c21.6 ETH3 coinsoperation 30 launches12.1 ETHexits + fees
Solana

Solana, refreshed

Window: 2026-10-02 07:14:00 UTC to 2026-10-05 12:23:51 UTC, 77.2 hours, up from 28.8 hours in Report 01. About two days of Solana launchpad activity measured from the first slot our own index holds. It is not the history of Solana.

12,970
rug operations6.9% of 189,058 analysed launches
208,792 SOL
taken, net$25.1M at the price of each trade
11,453
first sell within 10 s88.3% of rug operations
662
repeat deployers26.6% of the SOL, most 173 launches
LaunchpadAnalysedRug operationsShareSOL taken, netDeployersFirst sell
pump.fun161,3329,856
3,745 in Report 01
6.1%175,658
64,647 in Report 01
5,5482 s
Raydium LaunchLab10,1593,056
1,576 in Report 01
30.1%32,086
17,906 in Report 01
5193 s
Meteora DBC17,56758
29 in Report 01
0.3%1,048
495 in Report 01
5313 s
All189,05812,970
5,350 in Report 01
6.9%208,792
83,048 in Report 01
5,8563 s

A rug operation is a red launch where the deployer-linked cluster sold at least 80% of what it bought and made at least 0.5 SOL, or pulled liquidity. Money is counted from these rows only. Bundled launches (9,298) are a count and are never netted. Takes are the pool-side amount, gross of network fees; a launch young at the time of the read can still grow. Report 01 figures are those frozen at its build.

Largest takes

TokenLaunchpadDeployerSOL takenBought / soldUSDProof
MrBeast
qptxT4..pump
pump.fun9zcotT..wBcy4,692331 / 5,024$562Klaunch tx
MEMEAGENCY
CyChQH..pump
pump.funCftPeL..sH9q3,505140 / 3,645$425Klaunch tx
PUMPGO
7gbJ4S..pump
pump.fun5mvjTR..WfTs2,976234 / 3,210$351Klaunch tx
SUKI
Ay9V3r..pump
pump.fun5ngMxW..FeZD2,717205 / 2,921$324Klaunch tx
ANON
2AKrTT..pump
pump.fun4SxAN2..2Vin2,373215 / 2,588$285Klaunch tx
DOTF
42qptE..pump
pump.fun8RYP9G..fnJt2,2754,046 / 6,320$278Klaunch tx
SUKI
AW7xdc..pump
pump.fun7xpY9v..33NW2,212215 / 2,426$264Klaunch tx
DOTF
3hr14K..pump
pump.fun7WFwgB..fNL82,1454,046 / 6,190$260Klaunch tx

Size of the takes: 1,491 under 1 SOL, 8,170 from 1 to 10, 3,058 from 10 to 100, 232 from 100 to 1,000 and 19 of 1,000 SOL or more. The median is 4.99 SOL. 662 of 5,856 deployer wallets have 2 or more rug operations (291 with 5 or more, 180 with 10 or more).

Deployers with the most rug operations

Deployer walletRug operationsSOL takenLaunchpadsActive
8Wz4CQpT..ahYWF173866pump.fun, Raydium LaunchLabOct 2 to Oct 5
E4FPggw9..LpZEA1502,112pump.fun, Raydium LaunchLabOct 2 to Oct 5
29yFzeBZ..ikbw8133849pump.fun, Raydium LaunchLabOct 2 to Oct 5
GpTXmkdv..8WAc41191,165pump.fun, Raydium LaunchLabOct 2 to Oct 5
GeUnv1jm..aUX1W111363pump.fun, Raydium LaunchLabOct 3 to Oct 5

Rug operations per launch day

01.3k2.7k4k3,953Oct 243,815 launches3,777Oct 360,804 launches3,820Oct 459,186 launches1,420Oct 525,254 launches

Oct 2 starts at 07:14 UTC and Oct 4 is partial.

Bad play

Bad-play detectors, version 4

Four teams added 17 detections for what the first seven rug types miss, and 2 more for Solana. Each went live on the Fable cards only after an independent re-check of random hits, on chain or in a simulation: 19 of 20 or better, or every hit when fewer than 20 exist. Every row has transactions or posts you can open.

With the four wider rug detections added (coordinated exits, insider clusters, wash-then-dump fleets and small liquidity pulls), 6,711 coins (22.4% of 30,014) carry a proven rug type, up from 5,867 with the first seven detectors alone. The wider rules overlap the first seven.

The 17 detections

Detection and ruleHitsCoinsIndependent checkProof
Coordinated exit
3 or more tied wallets sold 10% or more of supply inside their densest 15 minutes, the price was 50% or more lower in the next hour and outside buyers were net 0.5 ETH or more in. Any entry time, no price run needed.
67967919 of 20 on chain, 0 false redstx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Insider cluster
The coordinated-exit rule where the group's first buy came after the launch minute and it bought 10% or more of supply.
12012019 of 20 on chain, 0 false redstx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Wash then dump, tied fleet
5 or more tied wallets bought 20% or more of supply and sold 90% or more of it with a profit or loss within 20% of cost, made 30% or more of all volume, started before the price first halved, on a coin now at 30% of its peak or less.
90090020 of 20 on chaintx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Small liquidity pull
One removal transaction took 90% or more of a Uniswap v2 or v3 pool when only 0.05 to 0.5 ETH was left in it, on a coin that is not red. Amber, never red.
252520 of 20 on chain (the first rule scored 15 of 20 and was replaced)tx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Sells blocked (honeypot)
On a Uniswap v2 or v3 coin with live liquidity, real holders each try to sell 1% of their balance through the router in a simulation and every sell reverts, a fresh wallet can buy but cannot sell, and 3 or more sells were refused on chain.
414119 of 20 by simulation, a fresh wallet 20 of 20tx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Sell tax of 10% or more
A simulated router sell by a real holder works, but 10% or more of the coins leaving the holder never reach the pool. A plain transfer into the pool and a fresh wallet's sell show the same cut.
999 of 9 by simulationtx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Owner powers proven by simulation
An owner function (blacklist, trading switch, fee, mint or sale cap) is matched to the coin's code, then called by the owner in a simulation, and a holder's next sell reverts or is taxed 50% or more. Ownership is not renounced.
181819 of 19 by simulationtx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Hidden concentration
Among the top 20 holders, 3 or more wallets tied by a funder, a shared sweep wallet or the coin passed between them hold 10% or more of supply together and 5% or more beyond the largest wallet. A fact about the holder list now.
949420 of 20 on chain, 0 false redstx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Fake holders
One sender moves a coin to 20 or more wallets in one transaction with no swap. Wallets that hold exactly that drop and nothing else are 100 or more and 30% or more of the current holders. Amber from 50% of holders, otherwise information.
11811820 of 20 on chain (611,845 transfer logs replayed)tx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Thin liquidity
Past the Pons curve, a coin with a market cap of 20,000 USD or more where all priced pools would pay out under one fiftieth of it if sold to zero, and a 1% sell moves the price 25% or more.
252520 of 20 under the card wording (first draw 17 of 20)tx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Price painting
Drip: one wallet, or the wallets of one funder, make 30 or more buys, 20% or more of the coin's buys, with a median size of 0.002 ETH or less. Loop: 10 or more buys and sells, flat position, turnover of 10 or more, 1 ETH or more and 20% or more of the volume.
969619 of 20 on chaintx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Front-running
A wallet buys at most 6 blocks (1.5 seconds) before a buy of 0.3 ETH or more and sells 60% to 150% of it within a second after, at a profit, 5 or more times, on a coin with 3 or more victims.
37514120 of 20 on chain (the first rule scored 16 of 20 and was replaced)tx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Unlinked snipers
Wallets not tied to the creator or the launch bundle each buy 0.3% or more of supply in the first 3 seconds, sell 80% or more within 5 minutes at a profit, and together held 5% or more of supply.
20720719 of 20 on chaintx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Coins named in phishing posts
Robinhood coins whose contract is named in posts that invite a listing vote or a token claim and link to a look-alike domain. Information only: the coin is the bait, not the rug.
24222420 of 20 on live postspost 1 post 2 post 3
Phishing accounts on X
Accounts whose posts invite a listing vote or a token claim and link to a short link or look-alike domain that 3 or more accounts used. The link is not the named brand's site. Accounts are counted, not named.
929220 of 20 on live postspost 1 post 2 post 3
Same-text shill campaign, coin
3 or more accounts post near-identical text with the same contract within 30 minutes. Tool accounts, list posts, warnings and bait templates are excluded. Information line.
221 of 1 on live posts (every hit)post 1 post 2
Shill networks on X
An account that is in 2 or more same-text campaigns on different coins, with 2 or more of the same partner accounts. Accounts are counted, not named.
131310 of 10 on live postspost 1 post 2 post 3

Hits are the rows the cards serve at build time. Coins are distinct coins, or accounts for the X kinds. The coordinated-exit, insider-cluster, wash-then-dump and liquidity-pull rows are recomputed hourly over the last 14 days; the honeypot, hidden-concentration, thin-liquidity and fake-holder rows are the coins read in the latest refresh. Proof links are three examples of the latest hits.

Tied-group rugs now caught

Our review set holds 10 proven rugs where a group of tied wallets did the selling (a coordinated exit or an insider cluster). Before the version 4 rules none of the 10 carried a group fact with proof. 5 of 10 do now: the coins below, each with the transactions that show the group. 3 more read amber "bundled" on the launch detector since the funding fix of Oct 4, which now reads the airdrop that funded the creator and the buyers together. 2 are not flagged. Of the 10 clean controls, 0 carry a group fact.

CoinWhat the chain showsProofLaunch detector now
$CTO
Pons
522 tied wallets made 99% of the coin's volume (56.5 ETH), buying 319% and selling 319% of supply. The price is 88% below its peak. The group is tied to the creator.tx 1amber bundled
$MUSETOWN
Pons
7 tied wallets sold 15% of supply within 44 seconds. The price was 62% lower after. Outside buyers were net 4.37 ETH in.tx 1amber bundled
$T/ACC
Uniswap v3
335 of 773 tied wallets sold 60% of supply within 14 minutes. The price was 93% lower after. Outside buyers were net 10.5 ETH in.
773 tied wallets made 78% of the coin's volume (333 ETH), buying 193% and selling 186% of supply. The price is 98% below its peak.
tx 1 tx 2green clean
$ZARVIS
Pons
17 tied wallets sold 86% of supply within 9 minutes. The price was 54% lower after. Outside buyers were net 1.07 ETH in.
94 tied wallets made 82% of the coin's volume (36.7 ETH), buying 301% and selling 301% of supply. The price is 82% below its peak. The group is tied to the creator.
tx 1 tx 2amber bundled
$zc
Pons
94 tied wallets made 49% of the coin's volume (26.6 ETH), buying 215% and selling 215% of supply. The price is 85% below its peak.tx 1red rug operation

The five were first missed for four reasons found on chain: volume fleets were dropped as bots before grouping, fleets are funded by multisender airdrops of 400 to 940 wallets (the cap was 100), a first funding in WETH or USDG was not counted as a tie, and the exit rules asked for a price run and a late entry that these groups never made. A group that wash-traded instead of exiting reads as the wash-then-dump fleet fact.

Solana warnings

Detection and ruleHitsCoinsIndependent checkProof
Solana bundle snipe
The launch was bundled with wallets in a Jito bundle with the create transaction: linked wallets bought 2% or more of the minted supply in the launch window and the creator side sold 80% or more of it. The card gives the share, never a SOL figure.
6,7356,73519 of 20 on the Solana RPC, 0 failed, 1 not checkabletx 1 tx 2 tx 3
Solana creator dump
Wallets that signed the launch transaction sold 20% or more of the minted supply for 0.5 SOL or more net of fees, counting only tokens they bought with SOL, on a coin with 10 or more other buyers. Amber, never red.
97797719 of 20 on the Solana RPC, 0 failed, 1 not checkable; 14 of 14 checkable burned-supply rows exacttx 1 tx 2 tx 3

The share is measured on the larger of the minted and the current supply, so burned supply never inflates it. Both are checked on the Solana RPC with the create transaction, the Jito bundle and the sells read from the chain.

The wash line on the cards counts proven wash only

A card states a coin's wash share only from transactions that buy and sell the same coin inside one transaction, with those transactions as proof. Wallet churn and linked-wallet volume are not counted: their single-leg proofs held on 0 of 9 sampled coins. Of the 8,116 coins that showed a wash line, 4,860 keep it as it was, 105 keep it with a lower share, and 3,151 lose it. 20 random coins that keep the line were re-checked on chain: 19 of 20 exact, 20 of 20 with one checker pool-id artefact.

Held back

These did not reach the bar and are not on the cards:

Daily trend

The daily trend

The daily refresh writes one row per measure per run to a table. 7 runs exist so far, so the table is short; the second chart reads the detectors by launch day, which already spans two weeks.

Daily metricOct 3 7:29Oct 3 11:31Oct 4 13:37Oct 5 10:41Oct 5 11:52Oct 5 12:03Oct 5 12:13
Launches indexed664,689665,125670,079673,386673,591673,621673,649
New since the previous runn/a4364,9543,3072053028
Called rugged3,7083,7103,8023,9793,9793,9793,979
ETH taken in rugs18,26818,23418,30818,83918,83918,83918,839
Proven bundled115,919116,216117,696134,748135,194135,312135,457
ETH taken by bundles44,30544,20643,55644,29544,89544,86744,851
Posts linked to a launch10,86210,34713,05612,87612,87212,87212,872
Proven wash share of volume, %1.31.31.31.31.31.31.3
Sniper wallets1,7711,7711,7711,7711,7711,7711,771

Latest run, in words

Fable investigation, daily refresh 05 Oct 12:16 UTC. Data to 05 Oct 12:13; the previous run covered data to 05 Oct 12:03 (0.2 h before).

New launches: 28 (673,621 -> 673,649). 4 of them are bundled (14.3%); the bundle wallets on those paid 1 ETH and have taken 1 ETH out so far (net -0 ETH, their sales are still coming). 15 Uniswap-launched tokens were newly flagged as bundled as well.

Bundle wallets' net take over all 135,457 bundled launches: 44,851 ETH ($113,753,613), -16 ETH since the previous run (older launches -6 ETH as their wallets kept selling, the 19 new ones -9 ETH because they have bought and not sold yet).

Rugs: 0 of the new launches are called rugs so far (0 ETH). All rugs: 3,979 (+0 net, older launches are re-judged as prices move), 18,839 ETH net taken (+0). Creators: 392,428 (15 new), 2,819 with a rug (+0).

Promotion: 0 new posts (71,469 total). Posts naming a launch contract: 9,885 (+0), 4,670 judged promoting. Links to launches: exact contract 10,364 (+0), ticker only 3,163 (+0).

Wash trading: 1.3% of trench volume is proven wash (52,256 ETH of 3,988,461), counting only the wash contract and round trips where one address buys and sells the same coin inside one transaction.

Run: ledger and bundles rebuilt in 3.2 min, promo links rebuilt, 0 step errors. Written to shadow tables and the daily table; the live and report tables are untouched.

Proven rug-type hits per launch day, by type

Liquidity pullsCreator dumpsOperation self-snipesCoordinated exitsInsider clustersWash then dump
01503004506002123252729135

A coin with two types counts once in each. The first and last day are partial. Liquidity pulls on Uniswap v2 and v3 are the largest group every day.

Verification

10 of 10 numbers re-read on public RPCs

Ten numbers from this report were recomputed from the chain alone, on the official Robinhood Chain RPC and the public Solana RPC. The observed column is derived from transactions, receipts, logs, totalSupply and block time; nothing from our database is used to compute it. Run 2026-10-05 12:25 UTC, 33 requests to the Robinhood RPC, counting retries after rate limits, and 2 to the Solana RPC.

#Number and methodOur index saysThe chain saysResult
1ASTRAL launch: block, time and sender of the launch tx
eth_getTransactionByHash, eth_getTransactionReceipt, eth_getBlockByNumber
block 79359714
ts 1791058438
from 0x5102d4..b955
status 1
block 79359714
ts 1791058438
from 0x5102d4..b955
status 1
match
tx
2ASTRAL fee wallet pays 4.368 ETH to collector 0x3a16
native value of the transaction
eth 4.368
from 0x50c458..1506
to 0x3a163e..ba62
eth 4.368
from 0x50c458..1506
to 0x3a163e..ba62
status 1
match
tx
3ASTRAL fee claim of 4.1481 ETH
the claim event in the receipt holds the exact amount in wei
eth 4.1481
claimer 0x50c458..1506
eth 4.1481
claimer 0x50c458..1506
status 1
match
tx
4ASTRAL: 10 operation wallets bought 18.96% of supply in the first minute
eth_getLogs of the token Transfer events to the 10 wallets in the first 600 blocks (60 s), divided by totalSupply()
pct 18.96
wallets 10
pct 18.96
wallets 10
transfers 10
window_blocks 600
match
page
5ASTRAL: 24 wallets sold in one block (79,438,721)
eth_getLogs of all token Transfer events in that block: distinct senders into the one pool address
sellers 24
recipients 1
sellers 24
transfers 24
recipients 1
match
tx
6Collector 0x3a16 sends 7.6 ETH to contract 0x114d5742 (26 Sep)
native value, sender, recipient and block time of the transaction
eth 7.6
from 0x3a163e..ba62
to 0x114d5742
utc 2026-09-26T14:47
eth 7.6
from 0x3a163e..ba62
to 0x114d57..cd9e
status 1
utc 2026-09-26T14:47
match
tx
7$ROB creator dump: 46.67% of supply sold for 538.6448 ETH
eth_getLogs of every Transfer of the token from the creator wallet to the swap contract of the proof tx (divided by totalSupply()), and of the WETH the pool paid that contract inside those same transactions, from the launch block to the last sell
pct 46.67
eth 538.6448
creator 0x529993..2e21
status 1
pct 46.67
eth 538.6448
sell_transactions 662
router 0xf2a277..8098
proof_tx_from 0x529993..2e21
proof_status 1
match
tx page
8$SWAP liquidity pull: 32.7145 WETH removed from the pool in one tx
WETH Transfer events out of the pool address in the receipt, and the tx signer
weth 32.7145
signer 0xfdeff1..68bd
weth 32.7145
signer 0xfdeff1..68bd
status 1
match
tx
9$DEED wash round trip: one tx buys and sells the same tokens
token Transfer events of the tx: at least one address receives and sends the same amount (net zero)
roundTrip True
status 1
washEth 385.2562
status 1
tokenTransfers 4
addressesNetZero 1
txValueEth 0
match
tx
10Solana MrBeast: launch signer and slot, and the pool-side SOL of its largest sell
getTransaction (jsonParsed) on api.mainnet-beta.solana.com: slot, block time, fee payer, error field, and the pre/post balance of the pool (lamports, or wrapped SOL in the token account the pool owns after migration)
launch_slot 453016824
launch_ts 1791052806
launch_signer 9zcotTy2..wBcy
launch_err none
sell_slot 453294676
pool_sol_out 184.402274577
sell_err none
launch_slot 453016824
launch_ts 1791052806
launch_signer 9zcotTy2..wBcy
launch_err none
sell_slot 453294676
pool_sol_out 184.402275
sell_err none
match
tx tx

Also re-read: the definition behind the liquidity pull ETH figure. On $GUCCI, a Uniswap v2 coin, the pair received 50.09 WETH when the creator added liquidity and paid out 67.2219 WETH in the pull: 17.132 WETH above the deposit, equal to the index (pull tx).

The script is spotcheck.mjs and its output is data/spotcheck.json. The ten were picked to span the report: the case study, the largest creator dump, the largest liquidity pull, a wash round trip and the Solana section. Three checks failed on the first run because of the checker, not the data: a list read under the wrong key, a creator dump summed against the pool instead of the router the creator used, and a migrated Solana pool whose SOL sits in a token account. Each was fixed and the run repeated; no claimed value changed.

Method

How to read the numbers

Definitions, the bar a detector passed, and what is not covered.

Universe
30,014 coins launched Sep 21 to Oct 5 (14 days) on Pons and Uniswap with 10 or more buyers. Pons, $PONS, $FABLE, $ZEC and public infrastructure are protected: no detector fires on them.
Creator side
The launch sender, the fee recipient, and wallets tied to them by an on-chain fact. Exits through wallets the creator funded but did not sign from are not counted, so every ETH figure is a floor.
Proven
A coin gets a type only when its rule holds and a transaction shows it. Every hit carries a proof transaction.
Checked on chain
For each detector, 20 random hits were recomputed from receipts, logs and transactions on the public RPCs, never from our index, and 0 false reds were allowed on Pons, official tokens or infrastructure. First-pass misses: creator dump 19 of 20 (a relayer read as the launch sender), insider cluster 19 of 20 and coordinated exit 18 of 20 (a busy bot wallet used as the tie). Each was fixed with a guard and a new sample passed 20 of 20.
Operation
Fee wallets that forward claimed creator fees to shared collector wallets within 72 hours, with the creator wallets of their launches and wallets those collectors paid 0.05 ETH or more. Threat actors in this report are operations with a proven exit on at least one coin.
Source tables
The hits are rows of the detector table; the operation tables, fee-claim table and trade tables sit beside it. The query behind every number is in queries.sql, and numbers.csv lists each number with its table and query.

Limits, stated plainly

Recall is measured and limited. Against 90 ground-truth proven rugs (each with evidence transactions re-read on the RPC), the creator dump detector found 12 of 14 and the liquidity pull detector 21 of 22 in the window. The tied-group detectors (insider cluster and coordinated exit) found 0 of 10 labelled cases: they also require that outside buyers were hurt, and the labelled cases were wallets that sold together. Those cases are true facts about wallets, not proven rugs of outside buyers. The wider version 4 rules below drop the price-run and entry-time conditions and find 5 of the 10, measured by their author on the same labels.
Not covered by the first seven. Honeypots and sell taxes: the first version held up on 7 of 9 candidates, short of the 19 of 20 bar, and was not shipped; the version 4 detectors in the Bad play section replace it with simulated sells. Promotion followed by a sell: 1 hit in 14 days with the first rule, because posts were captured for only 818 of the 31,697 coins.
Counts move. The detectors refresh every hour over a 14-day window. This edition is frozen at its build time; the card in the product can show a coin that has since left the window.
Two operation sizes. The fee-money graph and the case file count launches differently for the same operation; both numbers are shown with their definition.
Wallet linkage is evidence of coordination, not of identity. No wallet or operation in this report is tied to a named person. Allegations by third parties are labelled as allegations.
Appendix

Files

Everything behind the numbers, next to this page in the data folder.

fable
Fable Intelligence, Report 02. Data as of Oct 5 12:23 UTC. Built 2026-10-05 12:25 UTC.
@FableDotMarket
fable.market
Draft, not published.